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This week the price of gold showed a rare drop in history, with the largest cumulative drop from Monday to Thursday of about US$1. ,exceeded. Judging from the sharp decline in gold prices this week, the end of the phased bull market and the arrival of mid-term adjustments have been confirmed. As for the adjustment incentives, they are completely affected by the capital flow of speculative profit realization factors and have nothing to do with macro fundamentals. There is no doubt that the US economic recession and the macro environment of world financial turmoil are still conducive to the spot macro bull market.
Let us first review the fundamentals that affect the gold market this week, which are still mainly the fundamentals that affect the foreign exchange market. A report released by the U.S. Department of the Treasury showed that the monthly net capital inflow dropped significantly to 100 million U.S. dollars from the previous month, and was revised to a net inflow of 100 million U.S. dollars. The monthly capital inflow was not enough to make up for the U.S. trade deficit of 100 million U.S. dollars in the same month. The housing market continues its sharp decline, with building permits reported on Tuesday falling to a yearly low. Employment is down, retail sales are sluggish and industrial production has unexpectedly fallen sharply. All this means that the housing market weakness is spreading to other areas. The U.S. Federal Reserve announced on Tuesday that it would cut the federal funds rate by 10 basis points to 2.0 basis points, the lowest level in years. It also lowered the discount rate by 10 basis points to continue to try to avoid the economy from falling into a deep recession and curb financial market turmoil. However, the rate cut this time was smaller than many market participants expected. The U.S. dollar has shown a strong rebound trend that has exhausted all the negative effects. The U.S. dollar has exceeded its upward trend this week, which has put pressure on the gold price correlation. Of course, the momentum behind the sharp decline in gold prices does not come primarily from the guidance of a strong rebound in the U.S. dollar, but from the realization of speculative profits.