Yunnan Investment Management Co., Ltd.

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It can be seen that the uneasiness in the global capital market has finally spread to the gold market, and a huge panic is attacking the bulls in the market. Unfortunately, in this battle, there are no shorts, and the enemies on all sides just flee the battlefield. allies. Amid expectations of a bearish U.S. dollar, and after the release of negative data for the U.S. dollar one after another, the current market situation is that the U.S. dollar is singing triumphantly, while spot prices are falling miserably, showing a scene that is extremely disproportionate to the fundamentals. Along with this, the euro fell, global stock markets plummeted, futures turned green, and government bond yields rose. Is excess liquidity flowing back to the central bank, or is something else happening?
We believe that the reason for this situation is that the spillover effects of the subprime mortgage crisis are gradually emerging. The overall decline in all global capital markets is partly due to the contraction of liquidity. The consequence of this situation is that inflation has eased, while economic development has stagnated or even declined. Due to the lack of a coordinated exchange rate mechanism, outbreaks of economic problems in various countries will be transmitted to each other through the foreign exchange market. There are two problems in the United States now, one is high inflation, and the other is the risk of recession. Faced with the dilemma, the message sent by the United States is still that inflation is under control, but stimulating economic growth is urgent. In the medium term, cutting interest rates to boost the U.S. economy remains the preferred measure.
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