Yunnan Investment Management Co., Ltd.

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Investment needs and physical needs Will face a transformation. We believe that as the economy begins to show signs of recovery, it will be difficult for spot investment demand to increase further. Only waiting for the recovery of physical demand can make up for the decline in total demand. Looking at India, the major spot consumer, its first quarter growth was higher than that of the same period last year, and the growth rate exceeded that of the fourth quarter of last year. At the same time, due to the obvious recovery of India's economy, funds have once again flowed into emerging market countries such as India, causing the rupee to appreciate in cash and precious metals, and the purchasing power of Indian residents to increase. However, in the first quarter, India imported only tons of spot goods, and its monthly imports were only tons and tons. Therefore, the conversion of investment demand and physical demand has not been completed. It is more manifested in the decline in investment demand but the physical demand has not picked up. Overall, the spot demand will be is in a period of decline. Judging from the spot leasing rate, it began to decline rapidly in the second quarter, indicating that the tight supply and demand situation for spot goods has been greatly eased.
Based on the above analysis, the author believes that the outflow of safe haven funds is the main force dominating the current spot price. Therefore, the price of gold will first drop. Only when physical demand recovers or the mid-term depreciation of spot precious metals begins, the spot price will decline. rise again. In the second half of the year, gold prices will first decline and then rise, with the overall price fluctuating within the spot precious metals/ounce range. Although the market outlook may challenge spot precious metals again, the possibility of a breakthrough is very low.